Correlation analysis of key health indicators in Kazakhstan (2015–2024) in the context of strategic management and achievement of sustainable development goals

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Abstract

Modern healthcare in Kazakhstan is characterized by a high dynamism of socio-demographic and epidemiological processes, a significant increase in chronic diseases, regional disparities in access to medical services, as well as limited financial and human resources. Under these conditions, traditional management methods become insufficiently effective, which threatens the sustainable functioning of the system and the achievement of national and global health goals. Considering the integration of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) into the state strategy, there arises a need to develop scientifically grounded models of strategic management capable of ensuring comprehensive, long-term planning and forecasting of the sector’s development.

The relevance of this study is determined by the necessity for quantitative identification of interdependencies among key healthcare indicators to form tools for evaluating and optimizing managerial decisions. This creates a foundation for enhancing system resilience and minimizing risks associated with internal and external shocks.

The purpose of this study is to develop a methodological and analytical toolkit for the quantitative identification of relationships among key healthcare indicators and for the formalization of a multilevel management model for the sector based on the principles of sustainable development and the strategic orientations of the SDGs.

The methodological framework is based on a system-structural approach, methods of correlation and regression analysis, as well as scenario modeling. The empirical base was formed from the official statistics of the Ministry of Health of the Republic of Kazakhstan for 2010–2024, integrated with data from the WHO and the World Bank. A multilevel analytical framework was applied to identify cause-and-effect relationships and to construct predictive models, allowing for a quantitative assessment of the system’s resilience and its adaptability to external shocks.

The results reveal statistically significant relationships between demographic, epidemiological, and socio-economic indicators, which made it possible to identify the key drivers of healthcare resilience. A conceptual multilevel model of strategic management has been developed, including strategic, institutional, and operational levels, ensuring the integration of planning, resource allocation, and performance evaluation of managerial decisions.

The uniqueness of the study lies in its comprehensive and interdisciplinary approach. For the first time within the national context, a quantitative analysis of inter-indicator dependencies is combined with multilevel strategic healthcare management. The developed model provides a tool for scientifically grounded forecasting and optimization of systemic processes, enhancing the adaptability and sustainability of the sector to internal and external challenges.

Key words: healthcare, sustainable development, indicators of sustainable development in healthcare, ecology, social aspect.