Computer modeling of the cause and effect relationship between Kazakhstan's GDP and the main factors of economic growth using the Statistica program

Abstract

The article attempts to determine the cause-and-effect relationship between the growth of real GDP of Kazakhstan and changes in the level of its main determinants in the form of: the stock market of the Kazakhstan Stock Exchange (KASE), world prices for Brent crude oil, the overall level of credit in the economy, Kazakhstan's net exports, assets of the National Fund of the Republic of Kazakhstan, the general level of investment in fixed capital of the country, the exchange rate of the US dollar to the Kazakhstani tenge (USD/KZT), revenues from the export of Brent crude oil and state budget expenditures. The purpose of this study is to empirically test the strength and form of the cause-and-effect relationship between the growth of real GDP of Kazakhstan and changes in the main factors of economic development of Kazakhstan in 2007-2024. The hypotheses formulated in the work were tested based on computer modeling of classical linear regression with multiple independent variables in Statistica software covering the period from January 1, 2007 to December 31, 2024. Calculations were carried out in relative values, that is, in growth rates. The results of an empirical test of the strength and form of the causal relationship between the growth of the Kazakhstan economy and independent explanatory predictors allowed us to construct two classical linear regression models with several variables: model 1 - multiple regression model between the real GDP of Kazakhstan and the assets of the National Fund of the Republic of Kazakhstan, world prices for Brent oil, the KASE index and the USD/KZT exchange rate; model 2 - multiple regression model between real GDP of Kazakhstan and government budget expenditures, fixed capital investment and the overall level of credit in the financial system. The scientific and practical significance of the study lies in the substantiation and description of the economic growth model of Kazakhstan, taking into account changes in its main determinants. The classical linear regression models described in this article can be used in the development and implementation of real GDP growth policies in Kazakhstan. The presented set of independent explanatory variables allows us to select the necessary factors to determine the direction of economic growth in Kazakhstan, taking into account the set goals.

Key words: economic growth of Kazakhstan, factors of real GDP growth, multiple regression model.