Evaluation of the choice of modeling options in predicting the dynamics of milk prices

Abstract

Actually, effective activity of enterprises, firms, agriculture production in economy depends how
they can predict and forecasting the future.
Activity forecasting of enterprises, firms means evaluation of their development which based on an
analysis of market environment, changes. In market conditions , the role of forecasts increasing for managers
of different levels. In that regard ,statistical forecasting methods have become important instrument
for analytics, marketing activity.
Currently, the range of forecasting tasks has expanded. Forecasting is the basis for making management
decisions and improving the management process. The accuracy and reliability of the forecast
results provides for the identification of the development of socio-economic systems, the study of the
possibility of using existing resources and hidden reserves necessary to improve the efficiency of operation
and future development.
This article discusses the possibilities of using various modeling options for building final forecasts,
as well as topical issues that often arise in forecasting and relating to determining the nature of seasonality,
assessing the accuracy and adequacy of the constructed model.
The article outlines the significance of trend-seasonal linear type models, based on a comparison of
two alternative approaches to modeling price movements, reveals the adequacy of the application of a
linear model based on chain price indices for milk. In turn, the separation of forecasting methods given
in the study is rather arbitrary, since in practice they are interrelated and complementary.
Any forecast estimate necessarily includes elements of extrapolation, modeling and expert opinion.
However, for the conditions of operation of any entrepreneurial structure at present, which are characterized
by environmental instability and uncertainty of the future, the most effective, in our opinion,
forecasting method – the development of a linear model built on the basis of chain indices of milk prices,
was identified.