Spatial frictions and asymmetric trade potential of agri-food supply chains: evidence from the Sino-Kazakh corridor

Abstract

Macro-level trade statistics often mask structural frictions that suppress the performance of the Sino-Kazakh agri-food supply chain. This study examines the spatial and institutional barriers systematically limiting the value of Kazakh agricultural exports to China. Drawing on Transaction Cost Economics (TCE) and a sequencing-based "master switch" perspective, we construct a multi-dimensional descriptive framework that triangulates UN Comtrade data (2013–2024) against 158 active WTO I-TIP Sanitary and Phytosanitary (SPS) and Technical Barriers to Trade (TBT) records, supplemented by CAREC Corridor Performance Measurement and Monitoring logistics data. Our analysis identifies a severe weight-value paradox: in 2024, Chinese agri-food imports from Kazakhstan were 25.8 times heavier but only 3.2 times more valuable than Chinese exports to Kazakhstan. Furthermore, under the modelled scenario, SPS protocols combined with a five-day border delay and a representative 1.2% daily quality-degradation parameter generate cumulative quality loss, creating an estimated 14.25% trade suppression rate that disproportionately targets high-value perishable commodities. A comparative analysis with the China-ASEAN and China-Europe Railway Express corridors confirms that the friction is neither geographic nor infrastructural, but entirely institutional in origin. We conclude that the dominant barrier is the absence of a bilateral SPS mutual recognition framework. To address this, we recommend two targeted policy interventions: the establishment of a comprehensive Sino-Kazakh SPS mutual recognition agreement and the deployment of a consortium blockchain-based digital customs platform. These measures would transform the Khorgos border from a physical chokepoint into a seamless digital corridor, unlocking substantial latent trade potential.

Keywords: аgri-food supply chain, spatial friction, institutional friction, non-tariff measures, trade asymmetry.