Financing, innovation, and export upgrading in Kazakhstan ismes

Abstract

Small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in Kazakhstan play a key role in economic diversification and job creation, but their innovation and export potential are limited by insufficient access to long-term financial resources. This study aims to analyze the "financing → innovation → export" nexus and identify principles for tailoring a support portfolio that facilitates the transition from simple financing to developing competencies and improving the quality of export products. The empirical framework is built on panel data on SMEs in Kazakhstan for 2015–2024; fixed-effects models and the instrumental variable method (2SLS/IV) are used to account for endogeneity. The results show that attracting external financing statistically significantly increases innovation activity (including R&D intensity and the likelihood of innovation), with a significant portion of the impact of financing on exports mediated through innovation (approximately 40%). The impact varies depending on the type of instrument: grants and venture/co-financing are more associated with product innovation, while guarantees and concessional loans are primarily associated with the modernization of production processes. The greatest effectiveness is observed among medium-sized enterprises in tradable sectors and catching-up regions when combining financial measures with support for standards, certification, and management competencies. The practical implication is the development of recommendations for a modular program architecture that links financial instruments with competency development and a performance management system.

Keywords: financing, small business, innovation, export potential, development.