Economic potential of green technologies digitalization for achieving carbon neutrality in Kazakhstan

Abstract

The research problem lies at the intersection of the climate and digital agendas of the Republic of Kazakhstan — a country that simultaneously ranks among the world's twenty largest greenhouse gas emitters and has committed to carbon neutrality by 2060. The purpose of the work is to quantify the synergetic economic effect of the joint deployment of digital and green technologies in Kazakhstan's energy sector. The scientific significance consists in extending the twin-transition concept to the class of resource-dependent economies with coal-dominated generation; the practical significance — in designing an operational framework for national decarbonization programmes. The methodology combines a five-vector effect decomposition through the explicit formula E = Σ Bᵢ · Rᵢ · kᵢ · Pᵢ, three-scenario modelling (business-as-usual, target, breakthrough), and comparative analysis of experience from Germany, China, Denmark, and the United States. Main results: under the target scenario, the direct annual economic effect by 2030 is estimated at USD 615–835 million, rising to USD 3.2–4.1 billion (1.0–1.3% of GDP) when multiplier effects are included; the potential CBAM burden on EU-bound exports is reduced by 32–38% through MRV digitalization. The research value consists in developing a methodology with justified realizability coefficients for Kazakhstan's institutional environment, as well as in constructing a matrix of twelve policy measures with measurable indicators. The practical significance of the results lies in their direct applicability in programmes of the Ministry of Energy and the AIFC, as well as in the transferability of the approach to comparable resource-dependent economies of the CIS and SCO.

Keywords: digitalization, green technologies, carbon neutrality, twin transition, Kazakhstan.