Macroeconomic consequences of climate variability for the agricultural sector of Kazakhstan

Abstract

This study provides a systematic analysis of the macroeconomic effects of climate change on the agricultural sector. In recent decades, rising temperatures, changes in precipitation patterns, and the increasing frequency of extreme climate events have posed significant threats to the stability of agricultural production. In this case, it is very important to conduct a rigorous scientific assessment of the impact of climate change on productivity, production costs and the functioning of the agricultural market.

The main purpose of the study is to determine the channel and degree of impact of climate change on the macroeconomic indicators of agriculture of Kazakhstan and a comprehensive analysis of their relationship. The main idea of this study is to consider climatic factors as exogenous shocks beyond the development of agriculture and to assess their long-term economic consequences. The research methodology is based on the application of methods of systematic, statistical, comparative, and analytical analysis, as well as methods of dynamic series analysis. The research uses data from national and international statistical databases. The research methodology includes methods of systematic, statistical, empirical, comparative and analytical analysis. 2001-2024 In order to assess the impact of climatic and environmental factors on the total agricultural output in Kazakhstan, a correlation and multiple linear regression model has been created. The analysis used data from national and international statistical databases. The results of the study indicate a significant impact of climate change and environmental factors on the agricultural sector of Kazakhstan. In particular, temperature changes are one of the main factors threatening the stability of agricultural production. In this regard, it is important in the field of agriculture to develop adaptive strategies aimed at reducing climate risks, improving government policies for the efficient use of water and land resources, as well as ensuring environmental sustainability.

Keywords: climate change, agriculture, macroeconomic impact, productivity, market dynamics.