The effectiveness of investment projects in Kazakhstan's logistics sector

Abstract

The logistics sector of Kazakhstan plays a strategic role in ensuring national transit competitiveness and integration into global supply chains. This study considers Air Astana as a representative case of a capital-intensive logistics operator to bridge the gap between sector-wide investment trends and micro-level financial performance. The increasing scale of capital-intensive projects in transport and aviation infrastructure necessitates the development of methodological tools for evaluating investment efficiency under conditions of limited informational transparency. From a project management perspective, it is necessary to adopt value-based management tools, specifically EVA and ROIC, as primary mechanisms for monitoring and controlling value creation throughout the project lifecycle.

To understand how these significant capital flows translate into actual financial performance, a transition from a macro-level sector overview to a micro-level analysis of a specific market leader is necessary. The purpose of this study is to conduct a methodological synthesis and empirically test the indicators to assess the effectiveness of investment projects in Kazakhstan’s logistics system based on portfolio management principles and value-based management (VBM) indicators. The research integrates a macro-level analytical synthesis of major greenfield logistics projects (2015–2024) with micro-level financial modeling of a representative capital-intensive operator.

The methodological framework combines project portfolio analysis, structural investment diagnostics, ROIC and EVA modeling, cash flow evaluation, and payback simulation, all adjusted for weighted average cost of capital (WACC). The study introduces an evaluation approach linking project governance quality with economic value creation by treating financial metrics as project KPIs.

The findings demonstrate that large-scale logistics investments in Kazakhstan generate positive economic value when ROIC exceeds the cost of capital. The application of cost management indicators enables project managers in transition economies to better navigate an environment of high-cost capital and ensure that infrastructure development aligns with the principles of long-term financial sustainability. At the same time, portfolio dominance of greenfield projects increases capital intensity and risk exposure. This requires advanced risk management as well as systematic training of project teams. The study contributes to the development of a project-oriented evaluation framework applicable to emerging transit economies and provides practical recommendations for improving investment project selection and governance in national logistics systems.

Keywords: investment project management, logistics systems, Project Portfolio Management, EVA, ROIC, economic effectiveness, Kazakhstan.