Transformation of household consumption strategies in the context of macroeconomic uncertainty

Abstract

This article analyzes changes in household consumption strategies in the Republic of Kazakhstan in an environment of heightened macroeconomic uncertainty. The primary objective is to examine how consumption patterns respond to the simultaneous effects of rising nominal incomes, inflationary shocks, and volatility in real purchasing power. The empirical analysis is based on a combination of statistical methods, including an assessment of household income dynamics, the structure of consumption expenditures, physical consumption of key food products, correlation and regression analysis, as well as aggregated survey data on inflation expectations published by the National Bank of Kazakhstan for the period 2001–2024. The results demonstrate that growth in nominal incomes has not been accompanied by a stable expansion of consumption. Instead, the rising share of food expenditures reflects persistent constraints on real incomes and heightened income vulnerability. Inflation, when considered separately, does not show a statistically significant independent effect on the structure of consumption. At the same time, consistently elevated inflation expectations contribute to a shift toward more cautious, adaptive, and defensive consumption strategies. Overall, the findings indicate that recent changes in household consumption behavior in Kazakhstan are structural and largely forced, shaped by prolonged macroeconomic uncertainty rather than by shifts in consumer preferences.