Impact of IFRS 15 on tourism reporting: the problem of analytical divergence

Abstract

In the modern architecture of global capital markets, the transparency of financial reporting serves as the foundation for investment decision-making, yet the tourism sector's specific nature poses unique challenges for implementing international standards. This study conceptualizes the impact of IFRS 15 implementation and the resulting Principal–Agent dichotomy on analytical divergence within the Central Asian context. The research objective is to quantify reporting distortions and develop a robust verification algorithm to mitigate information asymmetry for stakeholders. The methodology relies on an author-developed parallel reconsolidation framework, utilizing scenario modeling based on Kazakhstan's audited industry data for the 2022–2024 period and binary classification of control functions. The results confirm that under identical economic turnover, the 'Principal' model (Gross) inflates recognized revenue tenfold - representing a 900% gap - compared to the 'Agent' model (Net). This creates a persistent 'illusion of super-efficiency' characterized by nominal 100% gross margins for intermediaries. However, the study demonstrates that this distortion is neutralized at the operating profit level (EBIT) with a correlation coefficient of 0.95, empirically proving that revenue is an irrelevant primary indicator of market power under IFRS 15. The practical value of this research lies in the proposed verification algorithm and the "dual-track" analysis approach, which enhances the predictive value of financial reporting for the 2025-2026 period and provides a standardized tool for auditors and regulators in emerging markets.

Keywords: IFRS 15, revenue recognition, tourism industry, analytical divergence, reporting transparency.